Manuevers in Tel Aviv

It could be an interesting summer in Israel. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is under fire and under pressure to step aside from within the Kadima Party and from his major coalition partners, the Labour Party headed by former Prime Minister Ehud Barack. Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz weighed in with this speculation about Iran, but I think this has to be taken with a grain of salt. Within Kadima, there will probably be a hard fought battle to replace Olmert between Mofaz and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni... and if elections have to be called (I think they're coming up soon anyway) then the main benificiary of conflict within Kadima could be Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud or Ehud Barack and Labour if it comes down to a general election. And if you think Mofaz is being bellicose, Netanyahu would probably make him look almost dove-like in comparison.

I think Olmert might go at some point, but I think it seems like the pendulum has swung away from him being pushed out to him leaving on his own terms. He's snaked through and survived so many times now he can't be stupid. His staying risks Kadima's position in the next general election, potentially- and I'm not sure he'd want that, but I'm not a psychic either, so don't place any bets on what I say. Personally, I think he should have gone awhile ago. His conduct of the Lebanon War was widely condemned within Israel and he just seems to be hanging there like a dead weight at this point- pushing peace negotiations and maybe a major operation in Gaza.

Could be a long summer.