Drills

Houston, we have a problem. Bush has reversed himself and joined in McCain's call for offshore drilling. Congress has had a ban on off shore drilling in place for nearly 30 years now and I think this sends a clear signal that the GOP intends to make energy policy the issue of this election- and its unfortunately one that could hurt Obama greatly, depending on how he reacts to it.

This is smart. This is probably the smartest thing the GOP could do in this electoral cycle because if they play it right, they could blow the whole thing wide open and take The White House. People may be all too willing to scoff at the notion, but remember 2004: no one thought gay marriage would be an issue- and yet election day afternoon, NPR broke exit polling that said people were voting mainly on moral issues. (That's when I knew Bush had probably won.) This is that moment for 2008.

The GOP can't win on Iraq. People want a way out. They can't keep repeating the same old talking points about tax cuts for everyone and restrained fiscal spending (they sound boring on the latter (not to mention their tax breaks benefit the wealthy more than they help the middle class) and downright hypocritical on the former.) Moral issues aren't going to win this one either- as the Evangelical movement isn't wild about McCain and the feeling is somewhat mutual. So stop and think about it: what's pissing people off right now?

The price of gas.

The price of gas is hurting ordinary people, it's dragging down the economy and people are pretty pissed off about it and are desperate for some relief at the pump. With huge, huge, huge oil finds off the coast of Brazil, suddenly buying our oil from the Middle East looks like a less attractive option if we could eventually get the bulk of it from Brazil, Venezuela and domestic resources. This is a total winner for the GOP. Not only can they get more oil on the market, break down OPEC, but we buy less oil from the Middle East and thus spend less money on Saudi Arabia (less funding of extremism over there, by extension.) They can spin an solid-gold winner of an issue into a national security issue and totally outflank Obama on the whole damn thing.

When it comes to gas and oil independence, Obama (per his website) says this:

Support Next Generation Biofuels

* Deploy Cellulosic Ethanol: Obama will invest federal resources, including tax incentives, cash prizes and government contracts into developing the most promising technologies with the goal of getting the first two billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol into the system by 2013.
* Expand Locally-Owned Biofuel Refineries: Less than 10 percent of new ethanol production today is from farmer-owned refineries. New ethanol refineries help jumpstart rural economies. Obama will create a number of incentives for local communities to invest in their biofuels refineries.
* Establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard: Barack Obama will establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard to speed the introduction of low-carbon non-petroleum fuels. The standard requires fuels suppliers to reduce the carbon their fuel emits by ten percent by 2020.
* Increase Renewable Fuel Standard: Obama will require 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels to be included in the fuel supply by 2022 and will increase that to at least 60 billion gallons of advanced biofuels like cellulosic ethanol by 2030.

Set America on Path to Oil Independence

Obama's plan will reduce oil consumption by at least 35 percent, or 10 million barrels per day, by 2030. This will more than offset the equivalent of the oil we would import from OPEC nations in 2030.

* Increase Fuel Economy Standards: Obama will double fuel economy standards within 18 years. His plan will provide retooling tax credits and loan guarantees for domestic auto plants and parts manufacturers, so that they can build new fuel-efficient cars rather than overseas companies. Obama will also invest in advanced vehicle technology such as advanced lightweight materials and new engines.

Looking over his entire energy policy, he deserves applause for crafting a genuine, long-term national energy policy. I think there are plenty of detractors of the whole cap-and-trade thing for controlling greenhouse gases, but overall it's good. But when it comes to gas, it's long-term outlook is also its undoing. People are hurting at the gas pump now- and the Left's refusal to countenance domestic oil production could be the weight around Obama's neck that makes this issue a loser for him.

Don't get me wrong: I don't think we should go around ripping up new oil fields without good reason- and part of the reason I'm so iffy on drilling in places like ANWAR is because it probably won't solve the underlying problem. We need to start transitioning to an oil-free economy and we need to start right now. If we keep drilling domestically it may allow us to be free of foreign oil (a good thing) but it still won't change the fact that we need to modernize our economy and really take it into the future by getting rid of oil altogether. Domestic drilling, to me, is like a nicotine addict declaring he's going to quit and then having someone hand him six more cigarettes. The intent may be there, but the action won't reflect the intention at all.

If there's one thing the GOP is very good at, it's cloaking bullshit with enough half-truths to make it into a real issue- and if McCain can convince voters that he's got the better plan to get them relief at the gas pump, then it might just translate into votes for him.

Obama needs a plan for gas pump relief. Right now. And it had better be a good one.