Minnesota Senate Update

Well, surprise, surprise, Norm Coleman has a large lead over Al Franken in the latest polls, with or without Jesse Ventura in the mix. Star Tribune has it 52-40 in favor of Coleman in a two way race and 41-31-23 in a three way race with Ventura in the mix.

This is somewhat frustrating to me. Al Franken had been taking hits for weeks over everything ranging from articles he had written to tax evasion and other tax problems. The DFL knew that he had been bloodied and bruised and they endorsed him anyway- and it now looks like they squandered a huge opportunity to get Coleman's seat. To be fair, it's early days yet- so Franken could potentially make a recovery, but it'd be surprising. And with the filing deadline not until July, we'd have to have the question mark over what Jesse Ventura would do until then.

Do I think Ventura would shake up the race? I do. Do I think he could win? Ehhhhh, I'm not sure- I've been in Minnesota for two years and when the former Governor has come up in conversation, it's been either something fairly nutty (there were CIA agents in Minnesota while he was Governor) or a fairly mixed review. I think Ventura's biggest folly was the fact that the guy just couldn't take criticism from the press. It seemed kind of strange to me- I mean, he tossed wrestlers around the ring and yet he gets all pissed off because the press says something critical. Just ignore it already. But Ventura is an unknown quantity- given the lack of enthusiasm for Franken and the lukewarm support for Coleman he might have an opening. But it'd be a long shot.

But Franken is in a hole. I think if this continues into the fall, you might see Mike Ciresi reconsidering getting back into this and forcing a primary in September- (he's said he'd support whomever got the endorsement, but if Franken can tighten this thing up, the DFL may get buyer's remorse and want someone else.) But either way, one thing is for sure: name recognition isn't everything- and a couple of months of this may see Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer or Mike Ciresi looking like better choices. (They had wider gaps in match-ups with Coleman, to be sure- but a good chunk of that could be lack of name recognition more than anything else- those gaps could, theoretically, tighten considerably.)

We'll see how it goes, but buyer's (or endorsers?) remorse could set in quickly.