The End Is Nigh!

5:59 PM, CST: Big Political Story of the Day: The final two primaries of the Democratic Race in Montana and South Dakota. I have CNN on in the bedroom and I can hear Jack Cafferty keeping a running commentary on how many SuperDelegates are coming to Obama- and today, there have been a whole bunch. CNN has him 10 away, Daily Kos and DemConWatch have him 9 away, depending on what thread you read. Either way, tonight is the night. Whether or not we have a concession from Senator Clinton is an open question, but the magic number of 2117 or so will be reached. I'll be updating this periodically throughout the night. If you want some potential fun with all this stuff, head over to VodkaPundit and check him out. He's pretty libertarian (and thus not a big fan of Obama) but he drunk-blogs. No shit. It can be pretty funny stuff, in a nerdy kind of way.

6:23 PM, CST: CNN has Obama within 7 delegates. Tiresome speculation on VP picks is overwhelming CNN right now and totally pointless. Everyone's wondering whether or not Clinton would be his VP. Apparently, she's 'open to it.' But the big question is, is he open to it? More VP stuff later. It's kind of boring and I've got stuff to do.

6:39 PM, CST: Obama within 6. His delegate total is now 2112. A kick ass Rush album and really close to the Democratic Nomination. (And yeah, I know, a Rush reference is dorky as hell, but whenever I see 2112 anywhere I just automatically go there.) Polls close in South Dakota in 20 minutes or so, I think. Dinner break and then back for South Dakota.

7:00 PM, CST: Polls in South Dakota are now closed. CNN puts Obama within 5 of the nomination, though it's way to early for results out of South Dakota yet. I think we might be headed for a split- Clinton takes South Dakota, Obama takes Montana- but we'll see. Speechs from both candidates are forthcoming- Obama is in-state tonight, up in the Cities at the XCel Center, where, it is rumored that Prince is going to play. For free. And Obama will be there too.

7:10 PM, CST: Polls in the rest of South Dakota have yet to close (the bits out west in Mountain Time) CNN has Obama within 4 and no results from South Dakota yet. But I thought I'd take a minute to indulge in some mindless VP speculation. The airwaves are awash with Clinton surrogates pushing her for VP.

To be honest, I'm not sure how I feel about that- and I've never been sure how to feel about the whole 'dream team' thing, but I think I could live with it. Traditionally, VPs are supposed to bring you something and not hurt you- Clinton has high unfavorables, but lots of pissed of Clinton supporters may be mollified by her presence on the ticket- and since McCain has made it clear he's making a play for any disaffected supporters of hers, that'd be a quick, strategic way to end that. But here's the kicker: if you're Obama, you've just spent months (and months and months and months) persuading people not to vote for Clinton because she's 'the past' and you're 'the future.' How then does it look when you put 'the past' right there on the ticket with you? And let's not go into Bill. My biggest stumbling block on her campaign was her insistence on running with her husband. It pissed me off because she didn't really need him and he didn't help. And I'm not sure I'd want him in the White House. Or anywhere near it.

My Mindlessly Speculative Picks for VP:
1. Janet Napolitano, Governor of Arizona
2. Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico
3. Ken Salazar, Senator, Colorado

This first trifecta are all from out west, which is in area that might be slowly trending Democratic. Salazar and Richardson would help with Latino turnout, potentially (I really don't want to start lumping ethnic groups into mindless voting blocks, so I'm trying to be careful here) and Napolitano is a strong, Western governor with lots of experience- and she's a woman with a record on immigration that Conservatives can't complain about, but pro-immigration people might have a problem with. I'm not sure Napolitano can deliver Arizona, but she might be able to force McCain into campaigning in his home state and spending some money. And she'd bring experience to the ticket.

4. Tim Kaine, Governor of Virginia
5. Ted Strickland, Governor of Ohio
6. Ed Rendell, Governor of Pennsylvania
7. Phil Bresden, Governor of Tennessee

As the pundits have noted repeatedly, Obama has had problems appealing to white, working-class voters. Virginia has flirted Democratic for awhile and Tim Kaine might push it over to the blue side- a lot of people are pushing Jim Webb, the Senator from Virginia, but I think he should stay where he is for now. Kaine brings the executive experience Obama doesn't have. Strickland and Rendell are Governors of states that you need to get to 270 Electoral College-wise and Bresden could also appeal to white-working class votes and maybe flip Tennessee with 11 electoral votes to bring to the table.

8.General Wesley Clark
9. Senator Hillary Clinton
10. Governor Kathleen Sibelius, Kansas

The last three are all possibilities- some more likely than others. Clark brings the whole military thing to the table, which people are worried about- but Bill Clinton didn't have any of that either and managed fine. Senator Clinton is the most likely choice amongst the three- and Sibelius has been mentioned quite a lot as a solid Blue governor in a very Red State.

There. Speculation done- I think I made a prediction that there would be a woman on one or both tickets this fall and I think I'm sticking with that, but we'll see.

7:39 PM, CST: McCain is speaking in Louisiana right now. Two things stick out at me: the background that says: 'A Leader We Can Believe In' (not unlike say, 'Change We Can Believe In') McCain is doing well, but his attempt to prove he's not Bush runs into problems when you listen to his speech: it sounds like every Republican stump speech I've ever heard. Government bad, people good. Fill in the blanks from there. Can't the Republicans say something new for once?

7:54 PM, CST: OBAMA CLINCHES DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION! Per CNN- South Dakota results starting to trickle in, Montana to follow, but at last, the number has been reached. It's over.

8:19 PM, CST: CNN calls South Dakota for Hillary Clinton.

11:05 PM, CST: Final Wrap-Up of the Night- Obama took Montana, gave an awesome speech in St. Paul that despite Republican attempts to portray him as a light weight says otherwise to me. He may have some liabilities, but he's also pretty determined to overcome them and he just might. Clinton did not concede, but made noises in that direction (i.e. bringing the party together) and made a not-so-subtle pitch for the VP slot on the ticket (I speak for 18 million people and they should be listened too- a compelling if slightly entitled argument...) Primary season is over. Now the real game starts.