Olmert Out

The latest twist in the politics of Israel: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has announced (finally) that he will step aside as PM once his party, Kadima, have picked a new leader. Kadima primaries are set for September 17th and they've got some work to do. Polls show that Likud Leader Benjamin Netanyahu is the preferred choice of the public for Prime Minister. 36% backed Netanyahu, 24.6% backed Kadima Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, 11.9% backed Ehud Barack and a whopping 19% said none of the above.

The opposition parties in the Knesset have jumped all over this (of course) and are calling for fresh elections as soon as possible. This would effectively detonate the current coalition (Kadima being in chaos, thanks to Olmert and Ehud Barack just being... well, not very popular.) and probably see the far right Likud Party brought back into power with some other smaller parties to back it up. The fact that the chorus for fresh elections is growing louder with every new twist in the Olmert Affair just indicates to me how badly he's handled the situation. He knew he was being investigated. He knew it was hurting his standing in the polls. Yet he hung on anyway. A politician to the core, I guess, but a more canny politician would have resigned until the investigation was done and if cleared, would have been able (surely) to get back into politics somewhere.

Given the state of things in the Middle East right now, this isn't the time for personal hubris. Too much is at stake. Iraq may be calming down, but Iran may be heating up. Afghanistan is a mess and a bellicose Israel could send everything off the rails. Olmert rightly deserves to be derided for unimpressive leadership during the war against Hezbollah last summer (should have resigned then, really) and for holding, clinging to office when allegations of impropriety sprung up in the first place (should have resigned then) but these latest allegations and an outright investigation? Someone overstayed his welcome. And with the situation with Iran looking fairly grim, it seems like people want someone who's rough, tough and won't let them flail around against people like Hezbollah.

Advantage: Netanyahu.

It's not all bad news for Kadima though: Livni scored 24.6% in the preference poll and there's 19% who are either undecided or hate everyone. Plus she's got to get past Mofaz in the primaries and he's an-ex military type who could be the martial tough steadying alternative to Netanyahu that Kadima needs to run. I think we could see fresh election in Israel by the end of the year, though. And who's going to win them?

You got me. But either way- Olmert's stepping aside is way overdue.