Obama Abroad

Obama is heading out of the country in the coming weeks and one of his stops in Germany. There was talk of him giving a speech in front of the Brandenburg Gate, but that has raised some hackles and there's a mild political squabble erupting over it. Chancellor Merkel isn't wild about the idea- and the article rightly points out the pitfalls of Obama seeming too presumptuous- after all, he is just a candidate.

More importantly, this is an issue that the German government has to tread lightly on. The results of the last German election saw the formation of only the second 'Grand Coalition' in post-war history- Social Democrats rubbing shoulders with Christian Democrats and Merkel in charge. The first so-called Grand Coalition last only three years from 1966-1969- the obvious perils of a Grand Coalition being that if everyone's part of the government a delicate balance has to be maintained otherwise the Grand Coalition flies apart.

Do I think Obama could bring down the German government? Unlikely. But I think that as time goes on, more squabbles and tension within the coalition will rise until the coalition breaks and elections are called. At roughly three years or so, the Second Grand Coalition is on track to last longer than the first. I can't really find out any information on how long they can go before elections, but I'm betting its only another couple of years, anyway.