Saturday, August 9, 2008

Widening War

Russia has carried out airstrikes on the Georgian town of Gori as the conflict over South Ossetia tips ever closer to all out war. There's no sign of either side backing down and mixed reports of what's actually going on in South Ossetia. The Russians claim that they have retaken Tskhinvali, the Ossetian capital, but the Georgians claim that they are still in control.

Georgian President Saakashvili has declared a state of war and withdrawn Georgia's entire 2,000 troop contingent from Iraq to bring them back home to help with the crisis- and, more disturbingly, Abkhazian forces have launched artillery attacks on Georgian forces.

This is going to be a tough needle to thread at the end of the day. Russia can't risk an attempt at reabsorbing the entire country, but Russia can keep Georgia weak by ensuring the de-facto independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, if not absorbing both regions themselves. Yet Georgia has to go all in on this situation as well, because they cannot afford to see their territorial integrity compromised. I mean, what country wouldn't want to regain control of separatist regions- I just think more creative solutions should be considered to ensure the autonomy of both regions and Tblisi's control. It'd be a delicate line to walk, but not impossible if leaders from both sides are willing.

Problem is: I doubt anyone's going to be willing to talk anytime soon.

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