On Georgia

Nearly two weeks after fighting erupted between Russia and Georgia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia, the Russians have finally announced that their troops will begin withdrawals from Georgia tomorrow. The more information about the dispute that comes out, the more fluid and complex it becomes- at least in my head.

Whose to blame? Well... Russia, in this case- but Georgia didn't help matters either. Saakashvili had been told, quietly by the US and the west not to engage in needless provocations- given the fact that Georgia had announced that it was interested in NATO membership, the decision to take a stand right then and there on the issue of South Ossetia was a titanically stupid one. Georgia could have- and indeed should have played its cards a little better. Russian presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia aside, the status quo could have held for a few more months or even years. Once Georgia was in NATO, that would have strengthened its hand on both regions greatly. Once the U.S. was detangled from Iraq that would have strengthened its position as well. Saakashvili, however, is not a President I'd like to play poker with. He went all in (a huge risk) and got slapped for it.

But did he? Things are swinging around a bit that might rebound against Russia in ways that it doesn't like. For one, Europe got a nasty shock- and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Republics were put on notice that the Mama Bear is back in town and it's not wise to piss her off. That's why you're seeing a great deal of solidarity with Georgia. Poland signed a deal with the U.S. to base interceptor missiles in Poland as part of the U.S. missile shield (the Poles say the timing had nothing to do with Georgia, but I doubt anyone believes that.) And now the Ukraine is upping the ante- by offering a Soviet satellite defence facility as part of the European-US missile defense shield. If Russia's intent was to serve notice on its former Republics that they should toe the line Moscow sets for them, then it's backfired in a major way. Now, I think we'll see everyone and their mother running in the other direction.

The Russians aren't done though: Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Georgia that 'they could forget about the two regions.' Saakashvili refused to countenance giving up either- and with German Chancellor Angela Merkel coming to town to announce that if Georgia wants to- it will join NATO. And Merkel along with President Bush said that neither region can be annexed by Russia.

Militarily, however, things did not go so well for Georgia. Russian troops, better trained and with more experience, thanks to Chechnya were more effective overall, though I did see a piece (which I now can't find) which pointed out that the majority of the Georgian army remained intact and during the conflict fell back out of the lowlands and headed to the Lesser Caucus region beyond Tblisi- intending, I'm assuming to defend the capital and then maybe take to the hills? Georgian air and sea forces faired better, per Strategy Page. I'm not a military history buff, but I think it'd be a tall order to defend your country against one as big as Russia. Keeping your army intact would be a plus though. The interesting twist was the cyberwar Russia waged against Georgia- (super kudos to Estonia, another victim of Russian cyberattacks for sending help right away.)

So, on balance, where does that leave us?

For Russia: good and bad- leaning now towards the bad. The press narrative is changing and a coalition of nations to restrain Russia is coming together quickly. Russia may not give a damn that their perceived as a bully internationally, but the real question is- can they pursue an interventionist strategy in the long-term? That's doubtful. Demographics in Russia, like in the rest of Europe aren't good, despite the crazy 'Sex Days' that Putin and Company keep trying to push. That said, if Russia wanted to let the world know that they're back and they have weight to throw around, well, mission accomplished.

For Georgia: Like I said, President Saakashvili should hit Vegas when he retires from politics- he'd probably give the professional poker players fits. He was told not to push too hard and he did. He was ballsy and went all in on South Ossetia and got hit for it- but ultimately, I think things will swing around Georgia's way. A military defeat, sure- but it's shaping up to be a political victory. Germany and the US have re-affirmed support for Georgia's membership in NATO. And if, the international discussions per the ceasefire about South Ossetia and Georgia take place that too could be another victory for Georgia. International involvement gives Georgia some heft in its corner, so to speak- we just have to see if that happens.

For the International Community: the alarm clock rang and it was one heck of a wake up call. After a bit of flailing, the Bush Administration got its shit together and with Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Republics rushing to support Georgia, the EU jumped aboard very quickly. Both France and Germany were extremely proactive for a change. And things are coming together quickly. The biggest loser, I think, is the UN. The ineffectiveness of the Security Council was on fine display with this crisis. People were wringing their hands and wondering why the UN didn't do more- but what could it do, given Russia's veto? The case for reform only becomes more urgent if the UN is to be seen as effective again at all. Reform- and expansion of the Security Council is long overdue. It's structure is that of 1945 in a 2008 world. India, Brazil, South Africa should be made permanent members for sure- maybe even Germany and Japan as well. But it needs to happen sooner rather than later. And I think a veto override mechanism is long overdue as well.

But so far, things look to be calming down- at least for now.