Sunday, August 10, 2008

South Ossetia Update

Georgia has called a ceasefire and is pressing for a truce, but Russia says clashes are continuing are apparently hitting targets in and around the capital Tblisi. There might be some goodwill over the next couple of days to calm things down- since Russia has an upper hand in this situation.

In a twist, the Ukraine has issued a statement saying it may bar Russian naval forces from returning to their base in the Crimea- a clear shot across the bows of Moscow and placing them firmly on the side of Georgia. Whether this situation goes any further is an open question and it just underlies the problems and trickiness of Ukrainian-Russian relations over the Crimea. (Russia has a lease on naval bases until 2017- the Ukraine wants them gone after that.)

Either way, I'm willing to bet there's a good chance both sides stop shooting by the end of the week, depending on what mood the Russians are in. Russia may decide they want to rub it in a little more, but one thing is certain: Abkhazia and South Ossetia may have just taken their first steps from de facto independence to de jure independence, though I doubt any western nation would recognize either nation. Russia may reabsorb both- which I think would also be met with hostility from the rest of the world (not to mention Eastern Europe and former Soviet Republics in general- if Russia takes back South Ossetia and Abkhazia they're going to be really, really nervous.) But whatever the outcome- right now Russia has the upperhand and has made it clear they will not tolerate any change to the previous status quo. Georgia is just going to have to grit their teeth and let the Abkhazians and the Ossetians do their own thing, I think.

No comments: