Coming Soon...

...to a courtroom and probably a ballot box near you!

Gay marriage has, thus far, avoided breaking into the Heartland as of yet- but not for much longer. A trial court judge in Polk County (was it last year? Or the year before?) Anyway, he ruled in favor of a gay couple who managed to get married (I'm pretty sure) before the judge issued a stay, pending a ruling from the Iowa Supreme Court, who looks to be getting set to take up the case next month.

So how's this going to go? Eh, I wouldn't hold my breath, but Iowa has been known to surprise me now and again. There have been precedents in other states for Supreme Courts merely punting to legislatures and telling them to do something about this, pronto. If they don't do that, then there will, (should they rule in favor) inevitably, be a challenge- and it'll go to the voters. My read is that Western Iowa/Northwestern Iowa will probably go solidly no, Des Moines and the central will probably split- and if there is a core area of support for gay marriage, it'd be in the East. Proponents should concentrate on the urban areas to run up the margins- and whoever heads up that campaign (because I think, regardless of the court decision, it'll end up with the voters anyway) had better have looked at the Prop 8 Debacle and had taken damn good notes.

It'll be a difficult sell in Iowa, potentially- but the refreshing part about Iowa is that it's been known to surprise me now and again. I think it might have an easier time in Minnesota, but then again, that depends on how the proponents run the campaign. Minnesota has an advantage in that you have the metro area, which I'd imagine would probably vote heavily yes- and the real battle will be for the more Republican areas of the state (2nd, 6th Districts in the exurbs of the Cities)- keeping the margins close their and running up big margins in the smaller cities across the state (Mankato, St. Cloud, Owatonna, Albert Lea, Austin, Winona, Worthington) and snagging Rochester and Duluth solidly.

BUT: no matter what, proponents have to put a human face on it!! Politically, I think it's hard to pin down the upper Midwest. It's hard to quantify it as solidly Republican or solidly Democrat, which makes questions like these hard to predict. Of course, California was supposed to be an easy win for gay marriage proponents- hence things may not be what the pundits say they are. I think done correctly, it might have a chance- but it's hard to say what 'the correct way' would be, here in the Heartland.