Column #1: Far From Nobility

Editor's Note: This is (hopefully) going to become a regular feature here on the blog- once a week, a slightly longer piece devoted to whatever topic happens to interest me at the time. It's one of the many changes (hopefully good ones) you should start noticing around here as we start 2009 in earnest.

With the fall of the town of Kilinochi to the Sri Lankan Army this past week, the world’s eyes briefly turned once again to a forgotten conflict in South Asia- the long running, intractable and interminable Civil War between the Sinhalese majority on Sri Lanka and the Tamil Minority, with active resistance being spear-headed by the LTTE- or the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam- the Tamil Tigers as they are more commonly known.

It seems that, at least in the short term, the Tigers are on the defensive and will likely be pushed into the hills and be confined to low-level terrorist attacks, I would imagine before the end of this year. At their height, they controlled a good chunk of Northern Sri Lanka, but the government has been steadily advancing and pushing them out of cities and towns again and again.

This fall of Kilinochi, the de facto capitol of the Tigers was given wide coverage on the BBC and in many foreign news outlets- but once again, the American media fell short in their coverage of the basic events of the world.

The conflict between the Sinhalese and the Tamils is deeply entrenched in the Island’s politics and history. In his book Blowback, Neil DaVotta describes Sri Lanka as being caught in a process known as ethnic outbidding- meaning that Sinhalese political parties seek to ‘out bid’ each other for the favor of the Sinhalese nationalist movement- which is a key constituency on the island that can- and does swing elections. The first rule of politics being that of survival, no Sinhalese leaders have proven willing- or had the stature to take on the Nationalists and push for a just and lasting resolution to the conflict.

And here’s the rub: in the post 9-11 world- should they? The Tigers are, after all, a terrorist organization. Hours after the fall of Kilinochchi, they launched a suicide attack on the headquarters of the Sri Lankan Air Force. They actively resisted Indian intervention in the conflict in the late 80s- and it was a Tamil suicide bomber who was responsible for the death of Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1992.

Despite this, the Tamil minority itself does have real complaints. Their language, their culture- their basic rights have been under attack by the Sinhalese majority for decades now. Does this justify terrorism? No- but if this conflict is ever to end, it would require, if not engagement by the United States, then certainly a greater degree of awareness.

But, it seems that with the fall of Kilinochi, this conflict will most likely be settled on terms more favorable to the Sinhalese than to the Tamils. In this we can draw parallels to the conflict on Cyprus: the worst thing to happen to Turkish Cypriots since 1974 was the entry of Cyprus into the EU without a comprehensive peace agreement- because now, Greek Cypriots hold a veto over the entry of Turkey to the EU- and they can and probably will demand some forced settlement to the issue of Northern Cyprus as a price for Turkish entry to the EU- should, of course, another country such as France or Germany not veto that notion as well.

In Sri Lanka, the increasing military disparity between the government and the Tigers means that the Tamils have less and less leverage over the government as the Tigers lose ground- so if there is to be a solution, it seems likely, barring a change in the strategic situation on the ground to be imposed upon the minority instead of negotiated.

With another rebel stronghold lost and government forces advancing, Tamil opposition lawmaker Mano Ganesan was quoted as saying: “The noble need of the hour is an honest political solution. But it looks that we are far away from nobility.” And with the Civil War running increasingly in the government’s favor, a solution imposed by the military victors of this conflict will neither be noble, just or ultimately effective.